NFL4YOU.COM
Handicapping
Scams
The various trade publications
of the sports betting industry are inundated with advertisements for sports
services, organizations willing to sell you betting advice for a price. To our
knowledge these publications do not require verification of claims made by
advertisers. It seems that the publications in question want only the sports
service's money. Most will print whatever you want as long as you pay. Similar
claims are made through the mails, to anyone who has answered a sports service
ad or subscribed to a sports betting publication.One of the problems with many
sports bettors is they are willing to pay hundreds or thousands of dollars for
advice from sports services without checking out the validity of the claims and
the quality of the advice they are purchasing. Many of these individuals are
astute businessmen who wouldn't think of making a business decision without
checking it out first from every conceivable angle. They protect themselves by
insuring their homes and valuables, yet they are ready to believe any lies the
gimmick-oriented sports service will tell them.
Gimmicks
What are some of the more
common gimmicks used by the majority of sports services intent on getting the
customer's money without necessarily producing
winners?
Locks
The word lock has been used
more than any other to convince the naive sports gambler to give his money to
self-proclaimed geniuses. When the sports service uses the word lock, they are
stating that the game cannot lose. They have found that if they say it loud
enough and print it bold enough, a certain percentage of players will believe
them. They have also found that the more money they ask for their lock, the
easier it is to sell.The lock concept preys upon the
bettor who has been losing and wants to recoup quickly. This kind of player is
looking for the miracle that will bail him out. In this quest for a miracle, the
bettor loses sight of reality. Always keep in mind that a play is a play. It can
lose or win. The "expert" with the lock is implying that he knows more than the
lines maker, the bookies, the wise guys, the players and the officials. Almost
anything can happen in a football game and a turnover or bad punt can totally
alter the course of a game.Never forget that a lock is an
even-money bet, minus the juice. It should be treated no different than any
other play on a justifiable rating system. If the play is so good, why is the
service selling it to you? For the price of a plane ticket, the seller could
come to Las Vegas and clean up. The fact that none of these "locksmiths" ever do
this should be cause for caution.
Imagine a sports service that
is not monitored by any reputable monitoring service. Let's suppose also that
the sports service claims it wins 70% of its selections. With this hype to
substantiate its offer, the service offers a 1000-star lock for a game next
weekend and the cost to you is $150, $250, or even
more.If the sports service gets 500
people in its net, it is easy to calculate what they can realize. All they need
do is deal half the customers one side of the game and the other half the other
side. This guarantees 250 winners. Now the ante goes up. The next week the
salesman talks with the winning clients and asks, "How did you like that big
winner we gave you last week? I hope you got down big." If the price was $150
for the first game, the price may rise to $200 or $300 for the next release. The
second week cuts the number of winners from 250 to 125 and continues until the
final split. No matter what week you lose, you'll end up a victim, disillusioned
and broke, while the service has extracted thousands of dollars in fees with
their scams.
The Lay-Off
Scam
The tout service offers you the
so-called "can't lose" pick for $300, guaranteeing your money back if you lose.
The service lays $165 ($150, plus $15 vigorish) on the other side, leaving him
$135. If you win, the service loses $165 to the bookmaker and profits $135. If
you lose, the service collects $150 profit from his bookmaker and returns your
$300. This accomplishes two things for the scam artists. They have gained your
confidence. They also will be back for more easy money. It doesn't really matter
whether the service picks 50% or 60% winners; at $150 a pick (assuming 50%
winners), the service will do very well.Returning More Than You
Paid "Pay me $300 for the game and
I'll pay you $450 if it loses." Have you seen this one in sports publications?
Here's how it works. The service gets perhaps 100 responses. They give 50 people
one side and 50 people the other side. At $300 a pop, they take in $30,000. But
they don't keep it all. They continue the scam, week in and week out, until
their customers run out of cash. In the scenario described here, the 50 losers
will receive $450 each, a total of $22,500, and the sports service pockets
$7500.Another version of the same
scam has the service charging $50 a game and offering a pay back of $60 on
losers. This scam can have you paying for net losers. Suppose you bought seven
plays at $50 each. The service deals you three winners and four losers. They
return you $240, leaving them a profit of $110 for one net loser. Seeing the
check from the service for your losers can lead you to proclaim, "What an honest
service!" You're right back the next week with $350 more. The service can't lose
unless they come up with a 1-6 or 0-7 weekend. After a week or two, they think
they have you and may suggest, "Just apply the $180 (for three losers) to your
next week's fee of $350."There are a number of other
scams, but these provide you with a number of examples to
consider.
Protecting
Yourself
1. Be skeptical when anyone
offers you a sure thing. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
Anyone who offers you a lock is insulting your
intelligence.
2. If a service tells you they
are great or hot, ask who monitors their selections. Make sure the monitoring
service they cite is credible and not in collusion with them. Subscribe to a
monitoring newsletter. Ask for credentials and valid testimonials. Have they
entered any handicapping contests? What was their record? Be sure to evaluate
their performance in terms of net winners or units, because this is the only
true barometer. If they win the most "funny money" in a contest, it might only
reflect the luckiest crapshooter in the competition.
3. Beware of the "infinite
star" approach to rating selections. This is where the service rates their plays
on too broad a spectrum (one to 20, for example). A good rating system should
use a ratio of one to four. Two- or three-star games should make up the bulk of
the plays. Under such a scheme, one would be a light play, two a regular play,
three a strong play and four an exceptionally strong play. Be careful buying
rated plays and be suspect if they induce you to load up on one
play.
4. Check out any sports service
before paying anything. If a service offers you a money back guarantee, get it
spelled out in writing. Be sure they are a legitimate business. Do they have a
business license? Obtain bank references. Ask if they are monitored. Are they
incorporated? Who are the principals and what are their personal credentials and
references? Above all, make sure there is no way for them to win if you lose. A
money back guarantee is only as good as the integrity of the
guarantor.
5. If a service should offer
you a net winner program, make sure it's equitable. If they come up with net
winners, pay them. If they deal you net losers, they should carry the losses
forward. The net winner program is not good business for the service, nor
totally good for the player. On a weekly basis, the service can hold back its
plays if it is ahead (to guarantee a payday) or load the player up with plays
near the end of the week (to bail out and make some money from the client). It's
a bad deal for everyone involved.
6. Make sure the service you
are buying from is not connected with several other services owned by the same
principals. You could find yourself being bounced around following a losing
streak by one of the services. There are several big operators who have
extracted many thousands of dollars from clients in one season using such
techniques. With certain types of clients, it is more profitable to sell losers,
then use a "bail out" pitch from another of their services.
Beware!
7. Be careful when
giving your credit card number to any sports service. You might be better off
using another form of payment. There have been instances where salesmen have
intentionally billed credit cards long after a client has ceased doing business
with a service. I know this is the actual policy of one service. Keep in mind
that an otherwise honest service can be victimized by its own commissioned
salesmen who engage in this practice.